US consumer prices surge above expectations in June – transitory rise or inflation is unleashed

The US consumer prices accelerated more than expected in June, having the highest rise since July 2008, as the economic recovery gathers momentum.

随着经济复苏势头增强，美国6月份消费价格增速超过预期，创下2008年7月以来的最高涨幅。

The consumer price index rose by 0.9% in June from 0.6% in May, beating the forecast of 0.5% increase, while the inflation in the twelve months through June jumped 5.4% - the highest in thirteen years – after rising 5.0% in May, overshooting the 4.9% forecast.

居民消费价格指数6月份较5月份的0.6%上升了0.9%，超过了0.5%的增长预期；而通胀率在5月份上升5.0%，超过了4.9%的预期，在截至6月份的12个月内蹿升5.4%——为13年来的最高值。

The so-called core CPI which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose by 4.5% on a year-on-year basis from the 3.8% increase in May, making the biggest increase since November 1991.

所谓核心消费物价指数(不包括易波动的食物及能源部分)较五月份的3.8%按年升幅为4.5%，是自一九九一年十一月以来的最大升幅。

Strong rebound in the costs of travel-related services and persisting supply constraints were the main drivers of inflation last month, as the low interest rates and the nearly $6 trillion that the government has pumped into the economy since the pandemic started in the United States, fueled the demand and strained the supply chain that lifted prices across the economy.

与旅行相关的服务成本强劲反弹以及持续的供应限制是上个月通胀的主要驱动因素，因为低利率以及美国疫情爆发以来政府向经济注入的近6万亿美元刺激了需求，拉紧了整个经济中推高价格的供应链。

Although the inflation in the US has likely peaked, it is expected to remain elevated through the second half of 2021 and a part of 2022, as demand for travel and accommodation services continues to rise and prices for most of these services are still below pre-pandemic levels.

尽管美国的通胀率可能已见顶，但预计将在2021年下半年和2022年部分时间内保持较高水平，原因是对旅行和住宿服务的需求持续上升，且大多数此类服务的价格仍低于新冠病毒爆发前的水平。

The US Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that the higher inflation will be transitory, and the central bank could tolerate higher consumer prices for some time, to offset years in which inflation stayed well below its 2% target.

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)一再表示，较高的通胀率将是暂时的，央行可能会在一段时间内容忍较高的消费价格，以抵消多年来通胀率远低于2%目标的影响。

On the other side, a number of policymakers see inflation risks shifted to the upside and the Fed needs to be prepared to act if those risks materialize, as many fear that the mix of monetary and stimulus measures has gone too far and could spark uncontrollable inflation.

另一方面，许多政策制定者认为，通胀风险已经向好的一面转移，如果这些风险真的出现，美联储需要准备好采取行动，因为许多人担心，货币和刺激措施的结合太过火了，可能引发无法控制的通胀

The fresh spread of the Covid-19 virus with the Delta variant in the US threatens to slow the economic recovery if new cases continue to rise quickly, but new restrictive measures are unnecessary to cool down the inflation.

如果新增病例继续快速上升，新冠肺炎病毒和德尔塔病毒变种在美国的新传播可能会减缓经济复苏，但没有必要采取新的限制性措施来冷却通胀。

With current inflation being well above the 2% target, the main question for the Federal Open Market Committee will be where the consumer prices will stand in six months.

由于目前的通胀率远高于2%的目标，联邦公开市场委员会面临的主要问题将是6个月后消费者价格将处于什么位置。

The US policymakers reiterated that the central bank would use all available tools to guide the inflation back down but remain convinced that the recent price hikes are transitory and associated with the post-pandemic reopening of the economy.

美国政策制定者重申，央行将利用一切可用的工具来引导通胀回落，但仍相信最近的价格上涨是暂时的，与新冠病毒爆发后经济的重新开放有关。

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his testimony to the US House of Representatives, repeated this view, expressing expectations that inflation pressures will fade and that the central bank should stay focused on getting back to work as many people as possible, as the US labor market is still short around 7.5 million jobs, compared to the pre-pandemic period.

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在向美国众议院作证时重申了这一观点，他表示，鉴于美国劳动力市场与新冠病毒爆发前相比仍缺少约750万个工作岗位，预计通胀压力将减弱，美国央行应继续关注让尽可能多的人重返工作岗位。

Powell said that the current high inflation readings are for a small group of goods and services directly tied to the reopening of the economy, seeing no need to rush with the start of changing the policy from the ultra-loose mode, introduced during the crisis, towards a post-pandemic gradual tightening.

鲍威尔表示，当前的高通胀读数是指与经济重新开放直接相关的一小部分商品和服务，他认为没有必要急于开始改变政策，从危机期间引入的超宽松模式，转向病毒爆发后的逐步收紧。

The central bank is expected to continue to closely watch the situation and to pump money into the economy until the Fed’s second key requirement for starting to tighten the policy – substantial further progress in the labor market – is reached, with interest rates expected to stay near zero until at least 2023.

预计美联储将继续密切关注局势，并将向经济注入资金，直到美联储开始收紧政策的第二个关键要求——劳动力市场取得实质性进展得到实现。利率保持在接近零的水平预计将至少持续到2023年。

But the recent surge in consumer prices has divided the US politicians and lawmakers, with Democrats urging the Fed not to slow the recovery with too-early policy action, while Republicans worry that the central bank’s response to the surging inflation might be too slow.

但最近消费价格的飙升造成了美国政界人士和议员的分歧，民主党人敦促美联储不要过早采取政策行动，从而延缓复苏，而共和党人则担心，美联储对不断飙升的通胀做出的反应可能过于缓慢。

Republican representatives point to a strong rise in prices that already hurt businesses and families and sideline the Fed’s description for price increases is temporary. They also questioned Powell about a new framework that aims to encourage higher employment by keeping inflation to run moderately above the Fed’s 2% target for some time, as higher inflation starts to bite, and it is unclear how long that ‘some time’ will last.

共和党代表指出，油价强劲上涨已经伤害了企业和家庭，也让美联储对油价上涨只是暂时现象的描述显得无足轻重。他们还就一个旨在鼓励就业增长的新框架向鲍威尔提出了质疑，该框架将通胀率控制在略高于美联储2%的目标值一段时间，原因是通胀开始上升，目前还不清楚这一“时间”会持续多久。

The Fed is also pressured by signals from several major central banks that started their policy tightening due to a strong rise in inflation earlier than expected.

此外，几大主要央行也发出了开始收紧政策的信号，这也给美联储带来了压力，原因是通胀率大幅上升的时间早于预期。

The main question is whether the current surge in prices is temporary, as US policymakers see it, and the reduction of the financial stimulus and an increase of interest rates can wait, or the sharp rise signals that inflation is getting off its leash and the US central bank might be late to react on such a scenario.

主要问题在于，在美国政策制定者看来，当前的价格飙升是暂时的，金融刺激措施的削减和利率的提高可以等待，还是急剧上升意味着通胀正在失控，美国央行对这种情况的反应可能已经太迟。